Missouri Power Grid: Blackout Risk, Reliability & Energy Outlook

Missouri's grid straddles MISO and SPP territories, with the Callaway nuclear plant and aging coal fleet anchoring a system facing accelerated coal retirements, growing renewable procurement from Ameren and Evergy, and persistent severe weather threats across the Show-Me State.

Last updated: 2026-02-02 · Data: EIA, NERC, state utility commission filings

The Grid Reality in Missouri

Missouri operates within the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) grid, which manages power flow across 15 states in the central US. The state's power system depends heavily on coal for baseload generation, supplemented by the 1,190 MW Callaway nuclear plant near Fulton and growing natural gas capacity. Missouri generated 85.4 billion megawatthours in 2024, making it a modest net exporter of electricity to neighboring states.

The state's generation mix reflects America's broader energy transition challenges. Coal still provides roughly 60% of Missouri's electricity, well above the national average of 20%. Nuclear power from Callaway contributes about 15%, while natural gas and renewables split the remainder. This heavy coal dependence creates both reliability risks and stranded asset exposure as utilities face federal emissions mandates and economics favoring cleaner alternatives.

Missouri's electricity demand has grown modestly at 1.2% annually over the past 5 years, driven by steady population growth and industrial expansion. The state's strategic location at the intersection of major transmission corridors makes it a critical link in MISO's regional grid operations.

Key Vulnerabilities

• Coal plant retirements: Missouri utilities plan to close 3,800 MW of coal capacity by 2030, creating potential supply gaps during peak demand periods

• Extreme weather exposure: The February 2021 winter storm knocked out 2,200 MW of generation statewide, forcing rolling blackouts across Kansas City and St. Louis metro areas

• Transmission bottlenecks: Limited high-voltage connections to neighboring states constrain Missouri's ability to import power during supply shortfalls

• Aging infrastructure: 40% of Missouri's transmission lines are over 40 years old, increasing outage risk during severe weather events

• Single nuclear dependence: Callaway provides 15% of state generation; any extended outage would strain grid reliability

The Demand Surge

Data center development is accelerating across Missouri, particularly in the Kansas City and St. Louis metro areas. Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have announced plans for new facilities totaling over 500 MW of electricity demand by 2028. These hyperscale operations require 99.9% uptime, placing new stress on grid reliability standards.

Electric vehicle adoption in Missouri lags the national average but is growing at 45% annually from a low base. The state's central location makes it a natural hub for EV charging infrastructure along Interstate 70 and Interstate 44 corridors. Industrial electrification is also gaining momentum, with steel and chemical manufacturers exploring electric alternatives to natural gas heating.

Infrastructure Spending Pipeline

Missouri utilities have committed $8.2 billion in grid investments through 2030. Evergy is building the 400 MW Bowman wind farm and planning 800 MW of additional renewables by 2026. Ameren Missouri is constructing the 157-mile Mark Twain transmission line to improve grid reliability between St. Louis and central Missouri.

The state expects to receive $1.8 billion in federal infrastructure funding through 2030, including $650 million for grid modernization under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. An additional $400 million in Inflation Reduction Act tax credits will support renewable energy projects and transmission upgrades.

MISO has approved $3.1 billion in transmission projects affecting Missouri, including new 345 kV lines connecting to Arkansas and Illinois. These investments aim to improve grid resilience and enable greater renewable energy integration across the regional system.

What This Means for Investors

Missouri's coal-to-clean transition creates opportunities across multiple infrastructure sectors. Utilities like Ameren (AEE) and Evergy (EVRG) are investing heavily in transmission upgrades and renewable generation to replace retiring coal plants. Both companies offer attractive dividend yields while positioning for regulated rate base growth.

The state's transmission buildout benefits equipment manufacturers including General Electric (GE) for turbines and Quanta Services (PWR) for construction services. Missouri's central location in MISO makes it a strategic market for grid-scale battery storage, supporting companies like Fluence Energy (FLNC).

Copper demand will surge as Missouri rebuilds its grid infrastructure. The state's transmission expansion alone requires an estimated 15,000 tons of copper through 2030, supporting miners like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Southern Copper (SCCO).

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is Missouri's power grid reliable?

Missouri's grid benefits from dual membership in MISO and SPP, providing access to diverse regional generation resources. The Callaway Nuclear Generating Station provides reliable baseload power for the eastern part of the state. However, aging coal plants face increasing economic pressure and maintenance issues. The state's central location exposes it to severe weather from multiple directions, including Gulf moisture, Arctic cold, and Great Plains severe storms.

What causes blackouts in Missouri?

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are the primary blackout cause, with Missouri sitting in a transition zone that receives intense spring and summer storm activity. The devastating 2011 Joplin tornado demonstrated the catastrophic potential of tornado damage to electrical infrastructure. Ice storms in winter can cause widespread multi-day outages. Summer heat waves create peak demand stress, particularly in the St. Louis metro area where urban heat island effects amplify cooling demand.

How is Missouri investing in grid infrastructure?

Ameren Missouri is investing in renewable energy and grid modernization, including the acquisition of wind generation and deployment of smart grid technology. Evergy is expanding wind and solar resources to serve western Missouri customers. Transmission investment is needed to improve the interconnection between MISO and SPP territories within the state. Distribution system hardening and vegetation management are ongoing investment priorities to reduce storm-related outages.

What is Missouri's energy mix?

Missouri generates approximately 35% of its electricity from coal, 30% from natural gas, about 10% from nuclear (Callaway), and a growing share from wind. Solar development is accelerating but remains a small share of total generation. The state's coal-to-gas transition is proceeding more slowly than in many states, reflecting both the political environment and the continued economic viability of some Missouri coal plants. Wind generation, primarily imported from Kansas and Oklahoma, is becoming an increasingly important part of the mix.

This analysis is part of Energy Macro's state-by-state grid infrastructure research. For our complete framework on positioning for the $14 trillion grid rebuild — including specific allocations and income strategies — see The Blackout Fortune Playbook.

Updated: February 1, 2026 | Data sources: EIA, FERC, MISO filings