TLT ETF Review: Is 20+ Year Treasury Bond Worth Buying?

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF provides maximum duration exposure to U.S. government bonds, serving as the primary deflation hedge and risk-off position in the Energy Macro framework — the asset that rallies hardest when the economy breaks and the Fed is forced to cut rates aggressively.

Last updated: 2026-02-02 · Data: Yahoo Finance, fund prospectuses, SEC filings

What Is TLT?

TLT tracks U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 20+ years, giving pure exposure to long-duration government debt. Managed by BlackRock, it holds a concentrated portfolio of the longest-dated Treasuries available, making it one of the most interest-rate sensitive instruments in the ETF universe. The fund has $47.5 billion in assets under management with a rock-bottom 0.15% expense ratio.

Current Snapshot

Why It Matters for Real Asset Investors

TLT serves as the ultimate macro hedge within our framework—not because bonds are real assets, but because they're the mirror image of everything we own. When our infrastructure, energy, and commodity positions face headwinds from rising rates or economic strength, TLT often provides the counterbalance.

This isn't about loving bonds. It's about understanding that 20+ year Treasuries are pure duration plays that amplify rate moves. A 1% drop in long-term rates can drive TLT up 15-20%, while a 1% rise can crater it by similar amounts. For real asset portfolios that get crushed during deflationary spirals or aggressive Fed tightening, TLT acts as portfolio insurance.

The key insight: TLT thrives during "risk-off" periods when investors flee to safety, rates collapse, and the dollar strengthens. These are precisely the conditions that hammer commodities, REITs, and inflation-sensitive assets. Smart real asset allocation means holding some TLT not because we love bonds, but because we understand regime dynamics.

Top Holdings

TLT holds a concentrated portfolio of the longest-dated U.S. Treasuries:

• 30-Year Treasury Bonds (2050-2054 maturities): The bulk of holdings, providing maximum duration exposure
• 20-25 Year Treasuries: Shorter-duration complement bonds
• Treasury STRIPS: Zero-coupon bonds that amplify interest rate sensitivity
• Recently Issued 30-Year Bonds: The most liquid long-duration government debt

Unlike corporate bond funds, TLT has zero credit risk—only duration and inflation risk. Every holding is backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.

How It Fits the Portfolio

TLT functions as a 5-15% portfolio hedge for serious real asset investors, not a core holding. When we're loading up on pipeline MLPs, uranium miners, and farmland REITs, a TLT allocation provides crucial diversification during macro regime shifts.

The trade-off is brutal: TLT gets annihilated during inflationary periods (exactly when real assets shine) but provides life-saving portfolio protection during deflationary crashes or severe recessions. Position sizing should reflect your conviction on the macro regime—higher TLT weights when you see deflationary risks, lower when inflation dominates.

Regime Signals

TLT outperforms during specific macro conditions:

Bullish for TLT: Recession fears, Fed pivot to cutting rates, disinflation/deflation, flight-to-quality episodes, dollar strength, equity market crashes, and banking sector stress. When the yield curve inverts and recession odds spike, TLT becomes rocket fuel.

Bearish for TLT: Sustained inflation above 3%, aggressive Fed tightening, strong economic growth, rising commodity prices, and fiscal spending booms. The 2021-2022 period exemplified this—TLT fell 40%+ as rates surged and real assets soared.

The ultimate TLT signal: Watch the 10-year breakeven inflation rate. When it falls below 2%, TLT typically outperforms. When it rises above 3%, long bonds get crushed and real assets take over.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is TLT a good investment?

TLT is a powerful but volatile bond instrument with duration of approximately 17 years, meaning it moves roughly 17% for every 1% change in long-term interest rates. This makes TLT excellent for tactical rates trades and deflation hedging, but devastating to hold during rising rate environments — TLT lost over 40% from 2020-2023. TLT is best used as a portfolio hedge rather than a core allocation, deployed when you expect economic weakness or rate cuts.

What is the expense ratio of TLT?

TLT charges just 0.15% annually, making it one of the cheapest ways to access long-duration Treasury exposure. The fund is also the most liquid bond ETF in the world, with billions in daily trading volume and extremely deep options markets. This combination of low cost and high liquidity makes TLT the default vehicle for institutional and retail investors seeking long-duration Treasury exposure.

How does TLT perform during recessions?

TLT historically delivers strong positive returns during recessions as the Federal Reserve cuts rates and investors flee to the safety of U.S. Treasuries. During the 2008 financial crisis, TLT gained over 30%. During the COVID crash in March 2020, TLT initially rallied before the Fed's intervention. The key risk is stagflation — a recession with persistent inflation — where TLT may not rally because the Fed cannot cut rates.

How does TLT fit into the Energy Macro framework?

TLT is the deflation hedge that balances Energy Macro's inflationary real asset positions. If the inflation thesis is wrong and deflation takes hold, TLT protects the portfolio. If the Fed cuts rates to fight recession, TLT captures the rate rally. The negative correlation between TLT and commodities/energy during most market regimes makes it a natural portfolio diversifier, though this correlation can break during stagflation.

For our complete allocation framework across real assets, infrastructure, and income strategies, see The Blackout Fortune Playbook.

Last updated: February 1, 2026 | Data: Yahoo Finance, BlackRock filings