COM ETF Review: Is Direxion Commodity ETF Worth Buying?

Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy ETF applies trend-following rules to commodity futures, going long commodities in uptrends and moving to cash in downtrends — providing commodity exposure with a built-in risk management overlay that reduces drawdowns during commodity bear markets.

Last updated: 2026-02-02 · Data: Yahoo Finance, fund prospectuses, SEC filings

What Is COM?

The Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity ETF tracks the Auspice Broad Commodity Excess Return Index, which uses trend-following signals to determine whether to hold long commodity positions or short-term Treasury bills. Managed by Direxion, this ETF represents a tactical approach to commodity exposure that aims to capture uptrends while avoiding prolonged drawdowns during commodity bear markets.

Key Stats: 0.72% expense ratio, $170.2M AUM, launched January 2014

Current Snapshot

Why It Matters for Real Asset Investors

COM represents a sophisticated approach to commodity exposure that aligns with the Energy Macro framework's emphasis on regime awareness. Rather than maintaining constant commodity exposure through inevitable cycles of boom and bust, COM's trend-following methodology attempts to participate in commodity rallies while rotating to cash during extended downturns.

This matters because raw commodity exposure has historically been one of the most challenging allocations for investors. Traditional commodity indices often experience prolonged periods of negative roll yield and secular headwinds. COM's tactical approach addresses this by using quantitative signals to determine when commodity trends are established versus when they're breaking down.

For real asset portfolios focused on debasement protection, COM serves as a dynamic hedge that activates during inflationary regimes while preserving capital during deflationary periods. The fund's ability to rotate to Treasury bills means it can generate positive returns even when commodities themselves are declining, provided the trend-following signals work as designed.

Top Holdings

COM's holdings shift dynamically based on the underlying index's trend-following signals. The fund typically allocates across:

Energy Commodities: Crude oil and natural gas futures, which often drive the fund's performance during inflationary periods or supply disruptions

Agricultural Futures: Wheat, corn, soybeans, and other grains that respond to weather patterns, geopolitical tensions, and food security concerns

Metals Complex: Both precious metals like gold and silver, plus industrial metals including copper and aluminum

Livestock: Cattle and hog futures that reflect protein demand and feed cost dynamics

Treasury Bills: When trend signals turn negative, the fund rotates substantial assets to short-term government securities

The exact allocation changes monthly based on the index's proprietary trend-following algorithm, which evaluates momentum across multiple timeframes.

How It Fits the Portfolio

COM functions as a tactical satellite position rather than a core holding within a real asset allocation. Position sizing should reflect its higher volatility and the inherent uncertainty of any trend-following system. Most investors should limit COM to 2-5% of total portfolio assets, treating it as a complement to more stable real asset exposures.

The fund pairs well with direct energy infrastructure holdings and REITs because it provides exposure to the underlying commodities that drive those sectors' fundamentals. When energy prices surge due to geopolitical events or supply constraints, COM's energy futures exposure can amplify portfolio gains. Conversely, when commodity trends weaken, the rotation to Treasury bills can provide ballast.

Timing purchases around major regime shifts tends to work better than dollar-cost averaging, given COM's momentum-driven approach. The fund typically performs best when entered during the early stages of commodity super-cycles rather than during choppy, range-bound markets.

Regime Signals

COM thrives during periods of persistent commodity inflation, typically triggered by supply shocks, geopolitical tensions, or synchronized global growth. The 2008 commodity boom and 2021-2022 inflation surge represent ideal environments for trend-following commodity strategies.

The fund struggles during deflationary periods with weak global demand, such as the 2014-2016 commodity collapse or the early stages of the COVID recession. However, its Treasury rotation mechanism should limit downside during these periods compared to static commodity exposure.

Currency dynamics also matter significantly. Dollar weakness tends to support commodity prices broadly, while dollar strength creates headwinds. COM's performance often correlates with the inverse of the DXY dollar index over medium-term periods.

Interest rate cycles provide another key signal. Rising real rates typically pressure commodity valuations, while negative real rates create favorable conditions for commodity rallies. COM's trend-following approach should theoretically capture these macro regime shifts.

Related Research

• Alabama Power Grid Risk Assessment
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) Tollbooth Analysis
• EWZ: iShares MSCI Brazil ETF
• Chevron (CVX) Tollbooth Analysis
• ConocoPhillips (COP) Tollbooth Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions

How does COM differ from DBC and PDBC?

COM uses a momentum-based strategy that only holds commodity futures when they are in a price uptrend, moving to T-bills when commodities are falling. DBC and PDBC are always fully invested in commodities. This means COM has lower drawdowns during commodity bear markets but may underperform during sharp V-shaped recoveries when it is still in cash. COM provides trend-following commodity exposure rather than static buy-and-hold commodity beta.

What is the expense ratio of COM?

COM charges a 0.70% expense ratio, which is reasonable given the active trend-following methodology. The Auspice strategy evaluates each commodity individually, going long those in uptrends and holding cash for those in downtrends. This active management adds value through drawdown reduction and is worth the modest fee premium over passive commodity ETFs.

What is the trend-following strategy in COM?

COM uses price-based trend signals (similar to moving average crossovers) to determine whether each commodity in its universe is trending up or down. Commodities in uptrends receive long futures positions; those in downtrends are replaced with cash or T-bill exposure. This systematic approach captures commodity rallies while avoiding prolonged bear markets, though it can whipsaw during choppy, trendless markets.

How does COM fit into the Energy Macro framework?

COM provides managed commodity exposure for investors who want inflation protection but cannot stomach the 30-50% drawdowns that broad commodity indices experience during bear markets. By combining trend-following with commodity futures, COM delivers a smoother return stream that is easier to hold through full commodity cycles. It pairs well with PDBC — PDBC for static exposure, COM for risk-managed exposure — within a diversified real asset allocation.

For our complete allocation framework across real assets, infrastructure, and income strategies, see The Blackout Fortune Playbook.

Last updated: February 1, 2026 | Data: Yahoo Finance, Direxion filings