The Weekly Wire — Operation Epic Fury: What To Do With Your Portfolio Right Now

RED ALERT ISSUE

THE TOLLBOOTH JUST BECAME LITERAL

The United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iran this weekend. Supreme Leader Khamenei is dead. The Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of the world's daily oil supply passes — has effectively shut down. Tankers are stacking up. Iran is retaliating with missile strikes across the Gulf.

Gold gapped to $5,400. Oil surged 8-13%. Dow futures dropped 350 points. Silver is holding $93-94.

This is the kind of event that makes people do stupid things with their portfolios on Monday morning. This issue exists to make sure you don't.

If you've been with me since Issue #1, you already own the assets that benefit from exactly this scenario. The tollbooth thesis isn't a metaphor anymore — there is now a literal physical chokepoint blocking 14 million barrels per day. Your job this week is simple: hold your positions, don't chase the gaps, and read every word below.

THIS WEEK'S KEY DATA

• Gold (GLD): ~$5,370 (up 2.3% — gap up, testing $5,400)
• Silver (SLV): ~$94 (up 1% — holding January levels)
• WTI Crude: ~$72.50 (up 8%+ — gap up on Strait of Hormuz closure)
• Brent Crude: ~$79 (up 9%+)
• 10Y Treasury: 3.97% (barely moved — not yet pricing recession)
• Uranium Spot: Check Monday open — nuclear energy security thesis just got stronger
• Copper: $95.70 (Friday close — unaffected by Iran directly)
• URNM: ~$61-62 (Friday close — AT BUY LEVELS)
• COPX: ~$95.70 (Friday close — near highs, hold)

WHAT I'M WATCHING THIS WEEK

1. Strait of Hormuz — The Only Thing That Matters Right Now

Why it matters: 20% of global seaborne oil flows through this strait. It is currently shut. Tanker traffic has halted. Iran has fired missiles at Gulf states including UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.

What to watch: Does shipping resume within days, or does this become a multi-week blockade? Trump said the operation could last "up to four weeks." Iran's new leadership structure is in flux — a temporary council has assumed control. Trump has also signaled willingness to talk, and Iran reportedly wanted to negotiate before the strikes began.

Impact: If this resolves quickly (days), oil gives back most of the gap and markets stabilize. If this drags on (weeks), we're looking at sustained $80+ oil, continued gold strength, and a meaningful equity drawdown. Either way — do NOT make permanent portfolio decisions based on a weekend gap.

2. URNM at Buy Levels — While Everyone Stares at Oil

Why it matters: While the entire world is focused on oil prices, uranium miners are sitting at $61-62 — right at the levels we've been waiting for. The Iran situation makes nuclear energy MORE strategic, not less. You can't bomb a domestic reactor offline. Nuclear is the ultimate energy independence play. Every country watching Hormuz close is thinking about baseload power that doesn't depend on a strait.

What to watch: Monday's open. If URNM stays near $61-62 while oil gaps up, this is the smart-money entry that most people will miss because they're distracted.

Impact: Bullish URNM, CCJ, UEC. The nuclear restart thesis just got a massive geopolitical accelerant.

3. Gold and Silver — Extended, Don't Chase

Why it matters: Gold at $5,400 and silver at $94 are trading on pure geopolitical fear premium. If you already own precious metals positions (as we recommended), you're sitting on gains. Congratulations.

What to watch: The gap fill. War-gap entries in gold have a terrible track record. The 2020 Iran-US tensions, the Ukraine invasion — gold gaps up, then retraces within 2-4 weeks as the initial panic fades. The structural bull case for gold is real (central bank buying, monetary debasement), but $5,400 is NOT your entry if you don't already own it.

Impact: HOLD existing GLD and SLV. DO NOT add at these levels.

THIS WEEK'S TRADES

BUY: URNM (Sprott Uranium Miners ETF) — Up to $64

Current Price: ~$61-62 (Friday close) Entry Signal: Price at buy zone while market attention is elsewhere Position Size: 5% of portfolio (hard cap) Stop Loss: 200 SMA — check current level on Monday Target: $85-90 by year-end

Why now:

Everyone is looking at oil. Nobody is talking about uranium. That's exactly when you want to buy.

The Iran situation doesn't just create an oil disruption — it creates an energy security crisis that benefits domestic nuclear power. Every utility CEO watching the Strait of Hormuz close is having the same thought: "We need baseload power that doesn't depend on foreign chokepoints."

URNM is sitting at ~$61, well off its 52-week high of $85. Japan continues restarting reactors. The US is actively expanding nuclear capacity. AI data center demand for stable baseload power is only growing. And now you have a geopolitical catalyst that makes energy independence a national security priority, not just an investment thesis.

Buy up to $64. Hard cap at 5% of total portfolio.

HOLD: GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) — Do NOT Add

Current Price: ~$5,370 (gapping to $5,400 area) Status: Extended on geopolitical gap — war premium is priced in Stop Loss: 200 SMA Action: Hold existing positions. Take NO new entries above $5,200.

Why hold, not buy:

If you followed the portfolio since inception, you own gold. It's working. Let it work.

But adding to gold at a war-gap open is one of the most common mistakes retail investors make. The emotional urge is enormous — "the world is falling apart, buy gold!" — and it almost always leads to buying the local top. Gold gapped 3.5%+ on the Ukraine invasion (Feb 2022). Within three weeks it had given back the entire move and then some.

The structural case for gold hasn't changed. Central banks are still buying. Monetary debasement is still real. But the ENTRY matters. Hold what you own. Wait for a pullback to $5,000-5,100 before adding.

HOLD: SLV (iShares Silver Trust) — Same Rules Apply

Current Price: ~$94 Status: Holding January levels, up ~1% on Iran news Action: Hold existing. Do not add above $90.

Silver hasn't gapped as hard as gold — it's more of an industrial metal and the risk-off trade actually hurts industrial demand. But the monetary demand component is intact. Same rule: hold what you have, wait for a pullback before adding. If SLV pulls back to the $85-88 range, that's your add zone.

HOLD: COPX (Global X Copper Miners ETF) — Unchanged

Current Price: ~$95.70 Status: Near 52-week highs, strong uptrend Stop Loss: 200 SMA Action: Hold. Iran doesn't change the copper thesis. If anything, infrastructure spending accelerates post-conflict.

DO NOT BUY: Oil/Energy Stocks on Monday's Gap

This is the most important instruction in this issue.

Your inbox Monday morning will be full of people telling you to buy oil stocks. CNBC will show you $80 oil and $100 oil forecasts. Your gut will tell you to do something.

Don't.

Gap-up entries on geopolitical events have among the worst risk/reward profiles in all of investing. If Iran resolves in 2-4 weeks (Trump's own stated timeline), oil gives back the entire 8-13% spike. You'd be buying the top of a fear premium.

The Tollbooth portfolio already benefits from higher energy prices through your existing commodity and energy infrastructure positions. You don't need to chase oil on a gap to participate.

MONTHLY REBALANCE — DELAYED TO WEDNESDAY

New model portfolio weights calculated as of Friday's close are ready. However, executing a systematic rebalance at Monday's open — into a geopolitical gap with 8% oil moves and 350-point Dow futures drops — is reckless.

Plan: I will publish updated rebalance weights in a supplemental Wire on Wednesday, March 4, after markets have had two sessions to digest the Iran situation. Execute rebalance trades Wednesday or Thursday.

What to do Monday/Tuesday: Nothing. Hold existing positions. Do not rebalance into gap moves.

CASH POSITION — RAISE TO 15-20%

If you're holding less than 15% cash (SGOV / money market / T-bills), use this week's strength in your winners to trim toward 15-20% cash allocation.

This is not a panic sell. This is the risk management framework working as designed. When geopolitical risk spikes, you want dry powder. If markets sell off further, you buy the dip from a position of strength. If they stabilize, you redeploy cash into the Wednesday rebalance.

Specific trim candidates:

• Any position up 50%+ from entry — trim 10-15% of the position
• Any position above the 34 EMA by more than 15% — trim 10%
• Route proceeds to SGOV (currently yielding ~5%)

POSITION SUMMARY

WHAT'S NEXT

Wednesday, March 4: Supplemental Wire with updated monthly rebalance weights. Execute rebalance trades Wednesday/Thursday, NOT Monday.

Thursday, March 5: Trade Desk Update — full portfolio performance, options positioning for the Iran scenario.

Next Wire: Sunday, March 8

THE BOTTOM LINE

This weekend changed the world. But it didn't change the thesis. It confirmed it.

Energy supply chokepoints are real. Physical infrastructure is irreplaceable. Hard assets protect wealth when the world gets scary. Uranium, copper, gold, silver, grid infrastructure — everything we've been positioned in for the past year just got more relevant, not less.

Your only job this week is to not make it worse by chasing gaps. Hold your positions. Buy URNM while nobody's paying attention. Raise cash. And wait for the Wednesday rebalance.

The perimeter is being watched. That's what you pay me for.

Questions? Hit reply. I'm monitoring markets through the night.

— Ethan West EnergyMacro Research

This is not investment advice. All investments carry risk, including loss of principal. Geopolitical events create extreme volatility — position sizes and stop losses exist for this reason. Verify current prices before trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The author holds positions in URNM, GLD, SLV, COPX, and CCJ.

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